‘Lone wolf’ poses big threat to homeland

James Winnefeld Jr

In the past week, two senior-level government officials have spoken on the record about the threat posed by the next generation of jihadi terrorists determined to attack within the United States.

Speaking with reporters after delivering his remarks at the fifth anniversary of the office of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), Dennis Blair said the threat from small, disparate groups of individuals radicalized over the Internet -- like the recently reported stories regarding ‘Jihad Jane’ and ‘Jihad Jaime’ -- will pose a serious challenge for authorities over the coming years. And the ability of our national security agencies to monitor or target U.S. citizens within our nation’s borders will test the parameters of operational flexibility for America’s intelligence communities.

“On the domestic side, we have a lot more responsibility,” Blair noted.

But the director added, “We’ve got to go across that divide just as our enemies do.  National intelligence includes what goes on in this country as well as what goes on overseas that threatens the United States.”

Meanwhile, the future U.S. Northern commander Vice Admiral James Winnefeld Jr. -- in response to questions from the Senate regarding his appointment -- commented that as the terrorism threat evolves, Americans can expect to see jihadis wage smaller scale attacks within the U.S. or against its interests, like the attempted bombing of a Detroit-bound airliner on Christmas Day in 2009.

The comments come as no surprise to academics in the field who typically break down the al Qaeda threat into a three tiers. The first tier includes the original top operational commanders, like Osama bin Laden and his closest cohort, who planned and executed the attacks of September 11, 2001. 

The second tier includes the thousands of individuals who trained at the Al Qaeda camps prior to and just following 9/11. Most of these individuals were distributed throughout the U.S. and Europe to recruit, radicalize and direct smaller scale attacks. Individuals from the London and Spanish bombings fall into this category. 

The third tier include Al Qaeda aspirants -- individuals who might have converted to Islam or young Muslim men and women born and raised in the western world who never traveled overseas to obtain Al Qaeda training. Most of these individuals make contact with Al Qaeda or its subsidiaries via the Internet, later planning and executing (or attempting to execute) attacks alone or in a small group. The disrupted 2004 Herald Square subway plot, the dismantled northern Virginia paintball cell, and the successful Chapel Hill hit-and-run are all indicative of this third tier.